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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still