Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
